Biopharma will be worth $1.6tn in 2028, analysts predict


A new forecast predicts global prescription drug sales to be worth $1.6tn by 2028.

Global biopharmaceutical revenues are forecast to grow at a compounded annual rate of 5.9% to 2028, according to the latest World Preview report published by Evaluate.

The annual report forecasts that while the industry will have to work hard to navigate ‘Pharma’s Age of Uncertainty’ in coming years, the top ten biggest drugs in 2028 will still pull in over $160bn.

The report predicts that in 2028 the biggest growth drivers will be developments in obesity, neurological conditions and cancer. The fastest-growing therapy areas will be immunomodulators (+13.5%), oncology (+11.4%) and the central nervous system (+8.6%).

In 2028, Evaluate estimates that Roche will be the largest company by prescription drug sales, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly entering the top 10 for the first time, and top three drugs will be Keytruda (Merck & co), Dupixent (Sanofi), and Ozempic (Novo Nordisk).

Mike Gallup, CEO of Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company said: “Key assumptions that have underpinned the pharmaceutical sector for so long – for example, the US market’s supreme profitability and reliance on big M&A to fuel growth – are being tested.

“The far-reaching Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), combined with increased scrutiny of M&A deals by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and increasing complexity around investment decisions, is behind many of the legislative, regulatory, and commercial unknowns that make this pharma’s Age of Uncertainty.”

Edited by Diana Spencer, Senior Digital Content Editor, Drug Discovery World

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