A successful treatment for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) could be worth billions, a new report suggests. 

New research commission by Challenge Works and undertaken by the Office of Health Economics (OHE) estimates that a successful treatment for ALS, the most common form of motor neurone disease (MND), could be worth billions. If advances in detection and treatment could effectively eradicate ALS, this would achieve a 10-year value upwards of $143 billion across seven key markets, including the UK, US, Canada, Australia, Italy, Germany and France. 

Depending on assumptions around treatment efficacy, the research estimates that, in the US, the commercial value of a successful treatment could be worth approximately $26-40 billion over 10 years and around $1.7 billion in the UK. 

ALS is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that damages the nerves in the brain and spinal cord called motor neurons. Signals from the brain stop reaching muscles, leading to severe muscle degeneration. Eventually this affects the muscles that are used to swallow food and drink, and those used to breathe. 

There is a 1 in 300 chance that a person will develop MND in their lifetime and it can affect adults of any age. Around 90% of cases will have ALS, which is a rare but devastating disease. Despite this, progress in the development of new diagnostics and treatments has so far been limited, and it is currently incurable. 

“The burden of ALS is particularly stark when expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost,” said Dr Amanda Cole, Director of OHE. “In the UK, an individual diagnosed with ALS may lose (on average) 12.6 QALYs over their lifetime. 

“Furthermore, ALS patients require intensive care, placing huge strain on healthcare systems, as well as families and support networks. The value of an effective treatment would be significant, and lifechanging for those living with the disease.” 

Breakthroughs in ALS treatment ‘urgently needed’

Research into ALS is increasing thanks to an uptick in funding, a growing understanding of the disease, increased availability of large-scale datasets, and an expanding number of AI and in-silico technologies that can accelerate drug discovery. 

The Longitude Prize on ALS was also launched in 25 June 2025, awarding a £7.5 million ($9.9 million) prize to incentivise the creation of AI-based approaches to transform drug discovery for the treatment of ALS. The prize is principally funded by the Motor Neurone Disease Association, and designed and delivered by Challenge Works. 

“For too long, ALS has been an area of high risk and low investment, but things are changing,” said Tris Dyson, Managing Director at Challenge Works. “Advances in AI, combined with better understanding of the disease and higher volumes of patient data, mean that we find ourselves at a turning point for uncovering potential new treatment pathways.  

“OHE’s research quantifies the significant value this would bring to individuals and societies, and we hope the Longitude Prize on ALS will mark a step towards discovering new treatments, and edge us ever closer to a cure.” 

“ALS offers biopharmaceutical companies strategic convergence where urgent unmet need meets compelling commercial opportunity,” added Dr Vishal Gulati, Founder and Managing Partner of Recode Ventures and Longitude Prize on ALS judge. 

“Investing here makes strategic sense: rapid disease progression enables shorter, more cost-effective trials; approved treatments have seen fast uptake; platform trials allow multiple drugs to be tested efficiently; and orphan status accelerates regulatory approval.  

“Crucially, ALS also acts as a proof-of-concept for technologies that could be applied to other neurodegenerative diseases, unlocking further opportunities. Breakthroughs are urgently needed, and OHE’s research makes a strong case for investing in this area.” 

Bruno Quinney, Content Team, DDW