Market analysts predict $44 billion in obesity drug sales in 2030

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Sales of branded anti-obesity drugs (AOB) could hit $44 billion in 2030 vs $2.5 billion in 2022, with just under 70% stemming from the US.

The predictions come from analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), who believe securing broad reimbursement and supply are key, with a possible upside from further innovations including combination products.

Michael Shah, Senior Industry Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, commented: “We expect Novo Nordisk’s franchise (Wegovy, Saxenda, oral semaglutide, CagriSema) and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide to dominate with shares of 54% and 46% respectively, while contributions from less-effective AOBs are negligible. Pipeline developments such as oral GLP-1s by Lilly and Pfizer, and Amgen and Lilly’s dual- and triple-combination drugs represent upside to our view.”

Bloomberg Intelligence’s model only includes approved drugs and those in ongoing Phase III trials. Using marketed treatments as a proxy, BI is expecting ex-US markets to have a 30-40% contribution within five years of launch. For Europe, BI has assumed a slower ramp and a 20% price discount to the US.

Obesity affects 650 million people globally, yet only 2-3% are medically treated. Costs associated with the disease exceed $2 trillion.

Shah added: “Unprecedented demand in obesity coupled with the strong relaunch of Wegovy, which serves as a benchmark for future launches, underpins our upgraded sales view for the market. Our raised view for oral semaglutide 50mg is underpinned by solid weight loss data and results from our survey of 100 US-based prescribers, which was conducted in March and highlighted a clear need for oral therapies.”

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